How Dean Byrne is leveraging data to improve College Pathways

Preparing our graduates for the challenges ahead

As June 2023 comes to a close, it signifies the winding down of college commencements and graduation ceremonies. As we celebrate the accomplishments of our graduates and wish them a bright future, we also have to prepare them for the challenges ahead. In the United States, our economy is slowing down and companies are laying off employees by the hundreds if not thousands. This has created an employer's market flooded with mid-career professionals. Graduates have to be reminded to lean into their resilience and perseverance that got them through college.

According to Research.com, around 40% of undergraduate students leave universities and colleges every year. Reasons cited for this are economic challenges as well as the lack of college credentials, connections and career related experiences. While it’s widely known there is a correlation between higher education and job security, college dropout rates remain relatively high.

What's in it for me?

As a college professor, I hear the struggles my students face with navigating college. Some of them bear so many responsibilities in addition to just being a student. They are working to pay for school while supporting their family in most cases. In addition, I attribute the global pandemic to this. A lot of these students have had their high school experience stolen from them. I also believe many don’t see the outcome of attending college. Some of my students are using college as a safety net in case a passion they are pursuing doesn't pan out. Between the gig economy and a broken educational system, many students are asking, “What’s in it for me?”

Meet Dara N. Byrne

Dara N. Byrne is the fourth dean of the City University of New York’s highly selective William E. Macaulay Honors College. Dean Byrne brings two decades of experience as a professor, researcher and administrator. She has expertise in developing innovative and enterprising student success programs particularly aimed at increasing the graduation rates of underrepresented and first generation college students. In her prior role as Associate Provost and Dean at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, she developed several student-focused initiatives that are credited with raising the college’s graduation rate by 16% in five years.

Dean Byrne leveraged data to help improve career pathways for John Jay College students and increase their social mobility. In 2016 Byrne pitched the challenge of the student dropout rate to DataKind, a non-profit organization that helps social justice leaders leverage data to increase their impact. In this case, DataKind set out to help John Jay College increase graduation rates through data and analytics.

Telling the Story

John Jay and DataKind needed to understand why students who reach or exceed 90 credits might not continue on to complete their undergraduate degree. The DataKind team used 10 years of historical data to categorize factors around which students would be at risk of dropping out of college. The data showed students who either didn’t have continuous enrollment per semester or did not return after two consecutive semesters were more likely to not finish school. The analysis used 72 variables to predict dropping out. The data points included risk group, risk score, risk prediction, feature, magnitude and rank. When thinking about features, consider them to be the inputs used to create the risk model. What advisors appreciate the most about the model is that it helps them understand past academic performance with the feature row. This is where you see the top five reasons that a student is predicted to be at risk.  Two of the top five reasons observed was a declining grade point average (GPA) or a low GPA for a semester also known as a term GPA. 

This analysis helped create a tool to assign students to a risk profile ranked from very low to very high risk of dropping out. The magnitude and rank rows from the data set help set the order of priority. Very high risk students were able to receive the appropriate intervention such as text nudges, academic supports, completion grants, and an assigned advisor to keep them on track to graduation. Every student, regardless of risk, received some outreach. The team was able to increase the senior graduation rate from 56% to 86% in just two years. In 2021, Dean Byrne and Datakind teamed up again to build the Transfer Student Risk Prediction Tool that uses machine learning, and specifically feature engineering techniques, to boost the graduation rate for students who transfer to John Jay from CUNY’s community colleges.

In her new role at Macaulay Honors College, Dean Byrne continues to use data to improve student outcomes. One way in doing that is working to expand access for talented transfer students. Launched as a pilot program in 2017, the Macaulay Bridge Scholars program created a pathway to honors education for high achieving CUNY community college students. In the past, the college only accepted applications from high school seniors. Since the launch of the pilot, philanthropic gifts have helped support a cohort of transfer scholars each year. Dean Byrne aims to institutionalize the program by leveraging data from these cohorts to figure out what program model and services will provide the best outcome for her students.

In addition to leveraging data to build better student outcomes, Dean Byrne has set another data goal. She and her team are on their way to developing innovative new programs that introduce students to the range of career pathways where data skills are an asset. She believes that the more familiar our students are with data and data storytelling, the better equipped they will be in their career paths.

Students shouldn't have to travel their paths alone

We’ve discussed that there is a correlation between higher education and job security. Students who choose an alternative pathway are going to need skills, vision, discipline and grit. They shouldn’t have to do it alone. Dean Byrne’s projects at John Jay College used data to support observations around students earning their degrees on time. We know that college students are struggling to make ends meet while investing in their future at the same time. By college credit 90, students are in their junior or senior year. This is a crossroads for some or the last leg of the marathon. Some of these students may have run out of funds. Others may have realized they no longer like their major. There’s also the possibility that a student found a more lucrative career. Dean Byrne and her former team at John Jay were not able to fully discern the situation until they analyzed the data. This type of data analysis helps to build a story of our students and to use limited resources strategically. The John Jay team was able to administer scholarships, academic advisement, and career counseling where needed. Understanding the challenge students are having can also help colleges retool the education model. 

As of Jun 29, 2023 The Supreme Court rejected affirmative action in university admissions, ruling that race-conscious decisions are unconstitutional. What did remain intact after this ruling is admission preferences for legacies, donors, employee families and special recommendations. The implications of this ruling will have a long term impact for Black and Latino students looking to enroll in prestigious private schools. Not only will this have an impact on college admissions, it can potentially impact hiring decisions. This ruling serves as an opportunity for strategic data crunching and analysis!

Dean Byrne’s strategy in leveraging data to improve student outcomes is something I hope more higher education administrators begin to explore. We’ve all recognized that the approach to education needs to catch up with our society and economy. One way that I see us catching up is implementing data apprenticeship programs. In the UK, there are programs at companies such as Bentley Motors Ltd, that allow students to work while gaining university degrees. I had the opportunity to talk with Dr. Andy Moore and Niamh Frogley about the experience that is turning the data world around. Giving students the opportunity to hone their skills in a work setting is advantageous to both the student and the company. Not only do students receive invaluable work experience, companies already have a workforce that is able to bring fresh ideas to their business. In case you're wondering, Dean Byrne is already actively looking for ways to bring data apprenticeships to Macaulay!